The Grand Exchange - A Prediction
You've heard and read about it in this month's Behind the Scenes issue.
The Varrock Grand Exchange will no doubt revolutionise trade in the whole of Gielinor. It will provide players with an easier method of buying and selling their wares - standing in crowded banks, repeatedly screaming out trade offers, will be a thing of the past.
Lately though, there have been many claiming that this new game feature would result in the crumbling of the economy. No one, at this point, knows for sure what would happen to the Runescape market once this update is released. However, I have come up with one general prediction.
I predict that items typically bought in bulk, such as logs and various types of food, will suffer a slight to moderate drop in value. Items bought individually like Barrows armour or even weaponry like the Abyssal Whip may not be affected at all. Definitely not a Runescapian version of the Great Depression players have been speculating, and I'll tell you why.
Cheap small trades encouraged - Due to the convenience the Grand Exchange will provide, players will withdraw any items lying around their bank which they were previously too lazy to get rid of, and then try to sell them off. These items may often come in the form of the 167 rotting raw lobsters left behind for several months, or the forgotten pile of 220 bowstrings collecting dust in the corners of bank accounts.
Based on the assumption that players pay little regard in trying to squeeze out as much profit from minor trades, these items they own will be sold at reduced prices. Numerous trades of this type will start building up at the Grand Exchange, which will result in a drop the items' value. No economic crash, no Great Depression scenarios, but prices will still be lowered slightly. This factor isn't applicable at all with trades involving individual purchased items.
Expensive "bulk trades" ignored - Since there will be no more teleportation, world switching or frustrating haggling involved, players who previously paid more to get items in bulk will no longer see the need to do so. All it will take is a few extra clicks to handle several small cheaper trades, as opposed to saving a few seconds but losing a significant amount of cash by accepting one big expensive transaction. The final effect? Prices will go down. Likewise, this is not applicable with individually bought items.
Cheap trades more visible - When looking for good deals in the Runescape forums, you'll have to do a thread search, and then painstakingly click on every single thread title to find out the player's asking price. Even when an inexpensive offer is found, the trader may no longer be online or could be completely sold out.
These problems will be non-existent when using the Grand Exchange. Therefore, good trades can be easily found, while the expensive ones are left behind. Again, this will result in decreased prices.
Some of these theories are largely based on expected features of the Grand Exchange. Since it isn't out yet, I have no way of guaranteeing that those features will be included. It's clearly a flaw in my train of thought, but I'm sticking to the idea.
We'll know what happens for sure, later in November.
Stuff achieved today: Nothing much
The Varrock Grand Exchange will no doubt revolutionise trade in the whole of Gielinor. It will provide players with an easier method of buying and selling their wares - standing in crowded banks, repeatedly screaming out trade offers, will be a thing of the past.
Lately though, there have been many claiming that this new game feature would result in the crumbling of the economy. No one, at this point, knows for sure what would happen to the Runescape market once this update is released. However, I have come up with one general prediction.
I predict that items typically bought in bulk, such as logs and various types of food, will suffer a slight to moderate drop in value. Items bought individually like Barrows armour or even weaponry like the Abyssal Whip may not be affected at all. Definitely not a Runescapian version of the Great Depression players have been speculating, and I'll tell you why.
Cheap small trades encouraged - Due to the convenience the Grand Exchange will provide, players will withdraw any items lying around their bank which they were previously too lazy to get rid of, and then try to sell them off. These items may often come in the form of the 167 rotting raw lobsters left behind for several months, or the forgotten pile of 220 bowstrings collecting dust in the corners of bank accounts.
Based on the assumption that players pay little regard in trying to squeeze out as much profit from minor trades, these items they own will be sold at reduced prices. Numerous trades of this type will start building up at the Grand Exchange, which will result in a drop the items' value. No economic crash, no Great Depression scenarios, but prices will still be lowered slightly. This factor isn't applicable at all with trades involving individual purchased items.
Expensive "bulk trades" ignored - Since there will be no more teleportation, world switching or frustrating haggling involved, players who previously paid more to get items in bulk will no longer see the need to do so. All it will take is a few extra clicks to handle several small cheaper trades, as opposed to saving a few seconds but losing a significant amount of cash by accepting one big expensive transaction. The final effect? Prices will go down. Likewise, this is not applicable with individually bought items.
Cheap trades more visible - When looking for good deals in the Runescape forums, you'll have to do a thread search, and then painstakingly click on every single thread title to find out the player's asking price. Even when an inexpensive offer is found, the trader may no longer be online or could be completely sold out.
These problems will be non-existent when using the Grand Exchange. Therefore, good trades can be easily found, while the expensive ones are left behind. Again, this will result in decreased prices.
Some of these theories are largely based on expected features of the Grand Exchange. Since it isn't out yet, I have no way of guaranteeing that those features will be included. It's clearly a flaw in my train of thought, but I'm sticking to the idea.
We'll know what happens for sure, later in November.
Stuff achieved today: Nothing much
